Wandering Alpha Team
Crypto Crashes, Lunar Moons, China Town, and Why We Haven't Hit Rock Bottom
Updated: Sep 11, 2021
There is absolutely no way to predict when the crash will finally end, and the new rally will begin. Anyone who tells you otherwise thinks you are a fool. Market timing in opaque, unregulated, and volatile markets is next to impossible.
That being said, there is an interesting theory floating around by many traders claiming that the Chinese New Year and the Moon are largely responsible for the downturn in Cryptocurrencies. Please stop laughing. We know it sounds absolutely absurd, but here is how the argument goes:
"Lunar New Year. Lots of money is flowing back to fiat to buy presents and plane/train tickets. People spend a TON of money on travel and presents during Lunar New Year. This is their Christmas. This is also the largest mass migration of people on the planet, occurring over two weeks. Projections are for $100 billion USD in spending.
Remember that the crypto market is antithetical to the stock market. Stocks boom when business is booming during the holidays. Crypto investors are retail investors, not Wall Street investors. Retail investors sell during holidays, thus the crypto market falls. This selloff has happened exactly 3 weeks before Lunar New Year each of the last 4 years." -LinkedIn Member Public Post
Now we know what you're thinking. This sounds interesting but does this really makes sense? To us, it makes absolutely no sense, and it is a story made up of people trying to prop the various currencies up and keep the unsophisticated investors involved.
Keep in mind; unsophisticated investors want to believe more than they want to know. Give them a good story, and they'll want to believe it so badly they will ignore the obvious signs that are making them sound a bit crazy.
So what's the takeaway from this? It seems rather clear that these types of stories and the rate at which they are being shared and discussed positively on numerous sites, from crypto trading platforms to LinkedIn, make another rally or two likely. As prices come down, people who got burned badly will sell out to people who were waiting on the sidelines to get in. It's classical behavioral economics and bubble mentality.
We think Ripple will hit $0.75-0.90 before it to takes off again on a tear, and Bitcoin will need to hit $7k-9k to take off again as well. There are a lot of things that can happen between when we wrote this and when you finally read it. These are just estimates, and there are over 1,300 ICO's that you can use to structure your portfolio.
Be smart, do your own research, don't play with money you need, and most importantly, nothing we've written here should be taken as investment advice or as advocating for any ICO, investment strategy, etc. We work with a lot of ICO's outside of Bitcoin, Ripple, and Ethereum, so this is only a small portion of what we're taking into consideration. That might sound a bit snobby, but at least we're not telling you to make investments based on the Moon or celebrations in China Town.
If you would like to ask us a question, send us a comment, or just say hello, you can do so here. Want to connect with us on LinkedIn, you can do so here. You can also connect with the founder, Christopher Sanchez, here.